Bush Campaign Gears Up For Major Offensive

Has anyone noticed that the offensives in Iraq seem to be kicking up around this time? Why might this be? Let's see what happens when the Bush administration launches a major offensive in Iraq:
  • Soldiers die
  • The news gives it coverage
  • It's possible that they retake important holdouts, kill important insurgents, or accomplish other important strategic goals

How do these weigh on the Bush administration's interests?

Does the Bush administration want soldiers to die? Obviously not. But - hypothetically speaking - given the choice of having soldiers die now or three months ago, which would the Bush administration prefer? Well, if the deaths occur now, it's all over the TV around election time. That's bad. But if they occured all throughout the summer, that would add up to a lot of deaths around election time. That's bad. And if they had occured earlier, John Kerry could also have been able to use them against Bush in his campaign speeches and in debates. That's also bad.

The news gives it coverage? That's good. At least the Bush administration is doing everything it can to secure peace and liberty for the Iraqi people!

The army takes strategic positions? That's good. The tide is turning, we've got momentum. We're making progress. Victory is ours!

So, purely hypothetically, the Bush administration would prefer to wage risky offensives in Iraq just around this time, while not doing everything that's maybe militarilly called for earlier. I wonder if that tells us anything about what's going on now?

I should note that this illustrates the thing I dislike most about this administration: the way all of its daily behavior is about politics. It's true that Bush has made some independent choices, but when it comes to his administration's daily behavior it seems that politics outweighs every other consideration.

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